![[Midterm2026_sweetspot_tumblr_4cfe13c76296a5d25cc7f11766f3f45d_89ab7a9d_540_withMarkup.jpg|497]] ![[Midterm2026_Oct_tumblr_90ea1b2563228aa053d34b17737400c5_1d345a88_500.jpg|499]] ### 十月入点 Midterm Q4-Q2 sweet spot 我们似乎来到了总统选举四年周期里对股市最友好的一段。 历史上，中期选举年Q4到次年Q2这九个月，股市无一例外收涨，平均涨幅20.2%；若只看前九个月已经上涨的中期选举年（比如今年），平均涨幅为15.2%。 细看十月的季节性（小盘股尤其明显），转折点通常出现在第6至8个交易日，也就是本周四到下周一。九月初我降了杠杆、加了对冲（见[[九月动荡 Sell Rosh Hashanah]]）；现在不想跟季节性作对，是时候减少或者去除指数空头对冲了。 股市向好的契机会是什么？ 1. 十年期美债收益率已到5.37%，中小盘股哀鸿遍野，需要一个超跌反弹？ 2. 中期选举相关的调仓基本完成，市场不再把它当作风险，利空出尽？ 3. 三季报陆续发布，企业回购窗口从10月中旬起重新打开，为市场注入买盘 (注1)? 其实，原因猜也猜不透。跟着季节性走、分批调整仓位，可能比我的任何解释都更有edge。 图片源自Almanac Trader。 注1：[美股四季度“逼空”信号浮现：CTA仓位大撤退，1.3万亿美元回购蓄势待发](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3782965) --- ### October Entry: The Midterm Q4–Q2 Sweet Spot We seem to have arrived at the most stock-friendly stretch of the four-year presidential cycle. Historically, the nine months from Q4 of a midterm year through Q2 of the following year have been positive every single time, with an average gain of 20.2%. Counting only midterm years in which the market was already up over the first nine months, as it is this year, the average gain is 15.2%. Look closer at October seasonality, especially in small caps, and the turning point usually comes around the 6th to 8th trading day: this Thursday through next Monday. In early September I cut leverage and added hedges (see [[九月动荡 Sell Rosh Hashanah|Sell Rosh Hashanah]]). I'd rather not fight the seasonals now, so it's time to scale back the index short hedge. What could spark the rally? 1. The 10-year Treasury yield has hit 5.37% and small and mid caps have been crushed. Oversold enough for a bounce? 2. Midterm repositioning is mostly done. Once the market stops treating the election as a risk, is the bad news fully priced in? 3. As Q3 earnings roll out, corporate buyback windows reopen from mid-October, bringing fresh buying (note 1). Honestly, there's no way to know. Following the seasonals and scaling positions in gradually probably carries more edge than any explanation I could offer. *Images from Almanac Trader.* Note 1: [Wall Street CN (Chinese): Q4 "squeeze" signals emerge as CTAs pull back and $1.3 trillion in buybacks wait in the wings](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3782965)