![[Pasted image 20260911021014.png]] ### Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur 美股九/十月份是传统动荡期；大家暑期度假回来，集中调仓。这期间政策消息、经济数据和联储会议等，多有市场扰动。 因通常刚好落在两个犹太节日中间，所以有Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur的说法。更保守的投资者则奉行"Sell in May, Buy after Halloween"策略，等到十月底万圣节之后，待尘埃落地再买入。 今年，适逢中期选举，民主党可能压倒性胜利，重夺两院 (Polymarket目前给50%概率)。若如此，后期政策对AI hyperscaler可能不会那么友好，火热的美国AI经济有踩刹车的可能。 这会十年美债利率逼近5%，VIX波动性攀升，我的投资组合表现也开始滑坡。 需要降杠杆，加叠对冲保护。立贴监督自己执行。 图片源自Almanac Trader。 --- ### Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur September and October are traditionally rough months for US equities. Summer vacations are over, and portfolio managers come back and reposition all at once. Policy announcements, economic data, and Fed meetings all tend to cluster in this window, adding to the turbulence. The saying takes its name from the two Jewish high holidays that bracket this window. More conservative investors play a wider version of the same trade: "Sell in May, buy after Halloween" — wait for the dust to settle before stepping back in at the end of October. This year adds a wrinkle: the midterm elections. A Democratic sweep — recapturing both chambers — looks increasingly plausible (Polymarket currently puts it at 50%). If that happens, policy may turn less hospitable to AI hyperscalers, and the American AI economy's scorching run could hit the brakes. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is pressing toward 5%, VIX is climbing, and my portfolio has started to slip. Time to reduce leverage and layer in some hedges. Posting this to hold myself accountable. *Image from Almanac Trader.*